Blood-red sunsets in the Midwest are striking but ominous illustrations of new data: Parts of the Midwest are being exposed to more wildfire smoke from the West Coast and Canada compared to more than a decade ago. Experts say the impact of the smoke on health in the region is a concern.
Meteorological patterns 鈥� weather, air currents, fronts 鈥� sweep wildfire smoke hundreds of miles across the country. Nowhere in the Midwest is this increased exposure to wildfire smoke more pronounced than in western Nebraska.
Take the case of Scottsbluff, a city of about 15,000 in Nebraska鈥檚 panhandle. From 2016 to 2020, residents of Scottsbluff breathed smoke 52 days a year on average. That鈥檚 a 45% increase from just a few years earlier, 2009 to 2013, when California wildfires were less common.
On Sept. 17, 2020, Scottsbluff exceeded the concentration of the Environmental Protection Agency鈥檚 (EPA) air quality standards for particulate matter 鈥� tiny pieces of debris from smoke and combustion that鈥檚 suspended in the air. That was a result of smoke sweeping into western Nebraska from wildfires in the western U.S.
Western and central Kansas also saw meaningful increases in smoke days, according to a data and the Stanford University Environmental Change and Human Outcomes Lab.
鈥淎lthough we see variability from year to year, the trend appears to be increasing impacts of smoke across Kansas over the last several years,鈥� said Matt Lara, a spokesman with the Kansas Department of Health and Environment in an email.
Lara said the effect from smoke may be mostly in the upper atmosphere, causing hazy skies and dramatic sunsets. He added that sometimes, such as late July and early August this year, federal air standards for daily particulate matter are exceeded.
Health and meteorology experts say the growing presence of wildfire smoke in parts of Kansas and Nebraska could pose health risks to those who breathe it in. That concern is compounded, given the likelihood that vast and intense fires from California and surrounding areas will persist.
鈥淎ll the science 鈥� and there鈥檚 a lot of science on this 鈥� suggests if we don鈥檛 change our game on this, people should expect this to get worse,鈥� said Marshall Burke, associate professor in Stanford University鈥檚 Department of Earth System Science, who helped NPR鈥檚 California Newsroom assemble its smoke data. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be worse in the West, but it鈥檚 certainly going to get worse in the Midwest as well as more people are exposed to smoke from fires in the West.鈥�
The analysis relied on satellite images captured every few hours by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that showed plumes of smoke billowing into the atmosphere from western wildfires. Those images were then plotted over nearly every zip code across the continental United States to show the areas where the wildfire smoke reaches.
In California and more broadly along the West Coast, the growing frequency and intensity of wildfire pose clear air quality and health risks.
The NPR California Newsroom analysis also examined data from state health facilities and found there were 30,000 more hospitalizations from cardiac and respiratory conditions in 2018, then a record year for wildfires, than just two years before.
Shawn Jacobs, the warning coordination meteorologist at the North Platte National Weather Service office, said that the climate in central and western Nebraska may play a role in how smoke is distributed in the region. The state鈥檚 climate becomes more arid west of Kearney, Nebraska, and the lack of moisture allows for greater temperature swings. More fluctuation means more movement, preventing the smoke from settling, Jacobs said. These trends are being noticed by western Nebraskans.
鈥淪o much so that there are times when people have called us and asked, 鈥業s there a fire nearby?鈥� because we鈥檙e seeing this smoke,鈥� Jacobs said.
Colleen Reid, an assistant professor of geography at the University of Colorado who studies the health impacts of wildfire smoke, said the health effects are clear when there are high concentrations of smoke in the air.
That risk arises from tiny particles that are so small they get deep into the lungs of those who breathe it in and some can pass into the bloodstream.
The particulate matter can lead to asthma, cardiovascular problems and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
鈥淚n terms of the Midwest where you鈥檙e getting the smoke transmitted long distances, there needs to be more research to understand whether the long-range transport changes the way it affects health,鈥� Reid said.
Iowa and Missouri have not experienced the type of increase in smoke days seen in Kansas and Nebraska.
That鈥檚 not to say that there hasn鈥檛 been wildfire smoke over Iowa and Missouri. In Iowa, there are on average 57 smoke days a year from 2016 to 2020, about even from the 2009 to 2013 time period. In Missouri, the average number of smoke days a year actually dropped slightly, from 52 in the initial period to 51 from 2016 to 2020.
Wide swaths of northwest Missouri had modest increases in exposure to smoke, but many areas of the state 鈥� including St. Louis and most of St. Louis County 鈥� had decreases in smoke days during the two periods analyzed by the NPR California Newsroom and Stanford.
Iowa鈥檚 western edge, particularly in border cities like Mondamin and Blencoe, saw an increase in smoke days between 7% and 12% from the 2009-2013 time period and 2016-2020.
But further east, in cities like Ames and most of Des Moines, saw decreases in smoke days.
The presence of wildfire smoke does not often exceed EPA standards for air quality in the Midwest, and it has never been enough to result in a violation of the Clean Air Act's National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Even so, EPA officials keep an eye on wildfire smoke migrating from the west to the Midwest.
鈥淚t is something that is on our radar; it鈥檚 a concern,鈥� said Lance Avey, an air and radiation division meteorologist for the EPA鈥檚 Region 7, which covers Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri.
Doug Norsby, air quality planner with the Mid-America Regional Council (MARC), said that while the occurrence of poor air quality days in the Kansas City region from wildfire smoke are infrequent, the presence of particulate matter from smoke is an issue that has captured the organization鈥檚 attention.
鈥淚 would say it鈥檚 a flashing warning light on our mental dashboard,鈥� said Norsby.
In early August, MARC warned Kansas City residents to limit outdoor activity. That鈥檚 after wildfire smoke from Canada swept into the region.
The EPA is currently evaluating particulate matter from wildfire smoke and other sources to determine whether it should change its air quality standards. That review happens every five years.
Experts said two main causes have triggered the increase in wildfires along the West Coast, Canada and the Rockies. One is the tendency to extinguish small fires that, if allowed to burn, would clear acres of leaf litter and dead wood. Without those smaller fires, dry leaves and wood ignites and leads to the more intense and out-of-control fires that have plagued California and other western states in recent years.
鈥淭丑别 campaign has been really successful,鈥� said Marshall Burke, associate professor in Stanford University鈥檚 Department of Earth System Science. 鈥淲hat do we do when a fire starts? We put them out.鈥�
In much of the Southeastern United States, where academic research shows prescribed burns are , NPR California Newsroom鈥檚 investigation shows a substantial decline in wildfire smoke over the past decade.
Burke said California should carry out prescribed burns 鈥� also known as controlled burns 鈥� on more than 1 million acres of land in California each year.
鈥淲e鈥檙e not doing anything close to that,鈥� Burke said.
Reduced rainfall and rising temperatures from climate change also make for stronger wildfires.
Those blood-red sunsets are a telltale sign of smoke in the air.
Eric James, a University of Colorado scientist working at NOAA's Global Systems Lab,
said large fires from the west pump smoke into the upper atmosphere that enters the jet stream and can travel across the continental United States.
鈥淲e see this most years, this long-range transport of smoke,鈥� James said 鈥淚t has gotten more intense in the last few years from what we鈥檝e seen.鈥�
The Midwest has the occasional wildfire, as well as controlled burns in places like the Flint Hills in Kansas. But James said most of the wildfire smoke in the Midwest is attributed to western blazes.
鈥淚 think the majority of the impact is from these large forest fires in the Pacific coastal states, Colorado and the intermountain west,鈥� James said.
This article is the result of a collaboration with the NPR California Newsroom, which conducted an analysis of federal satellite imagery, and Stanford University鈥檚 Environmental Change and Human Outcomes Lab.
Based at 漏 2024 外网天堂, Steve Vockrodt is the Midwest Newsroom鈥檚 investigative editor. You can follow him on Twitter @stevevockrodt.
Based at Nebraska Public Media, Daniel Wheaton is the Midwest Newsroom鈥檚 data journalist. You can follow him on Twitter @theheroofthyme.
The Midwest Newsroom is an investigative journalism collaboration including KCUR, IPR, Nebraska Public Media and 漏 2024 外网天堂 and NPR.
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