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Missouri budget in peril if Congress slashes federal funding to state Medicaid expansion

The U.S. Capitol on Monday, April 15, 2024, in Washington, D.C. Congress meets after Iran launched a drone attack on Israel.
Eric Lee
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漏 2024 外网天堂
The U.S. Capitol in 2024

As members of Congress mull their options over how to construct, some conservative federal lawmakers are embracing reducing the federal contribution to states that expanded Medicaid.

And while it鈥檚 not a sure thing that idea will end up finding enough GOP support to pass, some of Missouri鈥檚 budgetary leaders are closely watching Congress since the state鈥檚 voters constitutionally protected Medicaid expansion more than four years ago.

Congress is in the process of putting together what鈥檚 known as a reconciliation bill, which is a measure that could pass through Congress . With , Politico that one idea to cut the cost of the final package is reducing the federal contribution to state Medicaid expansion programs.

Missouri voters passed a constitutional amendment expanding Medicaid in 2020 to 138 percent of the federal poverty level, which is about $26,650 a year for a family of three. The federal government currently pays for 90% of the roughly $3 billion cost to cover about 325,000 participants in the program.

Dave Dillon of the Missouri Hospital Association said there鈥檚 nothing in the amendment that would allow the Department of Social Services to stop taking in Medicaid expansion applicants if the federal government reduces its share toward funding the program.

Sen. Lincoln Hough, R-Springfield, on the first day of the 2024 legislative session, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2024, at the Missouri Capitol in Jefferson City, Mo.
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Missouri Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Lincoln Hough, R-Springfield, shown here in 2024, said a stark reduction in the federal contribution paying for Medicaid expansion could have a huge impact on the state budget.

And because Medicaid expansion is in the state constitution, Missouri lawmakers can鈥檛 reduce eligibility to the program. Instead, voters would have to approve another ballot item repealing the Medicaid expansion amendment, which passed in 2020 with 53% of the vote.

Missouri鈥檚 budget could take a massive hit if Congress ends up ending the 90% match to Medicaid expansion states, said Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Lincoln Hough.

The Springfield Republican estimated that if the federal percentage to pay for Medicaid expansion went down to 60%, the state would need to find around $750 million in general revenue to fill in the gap.

鈥淭his pits the long-term future of the state against the immediate needs of paying for health care that鈥檚 constitutionally, in my opinion, protected,鈥 Hough said. 鈥淓very percent of that reduction that鈥檚 made to that population is going to cost this state in general revenue somewhere between 25 and 30 million. And that is real money, and it adds up very quickly.鈥

Bob Onder greets Ellyana Wilson, 16, and her brother, Lincoln, 13, (center) at the Soda Museum in St. Charles, after winning the Republican primary for Missouri鈥檚 3rd Congressional District on August 6, 2024. Onder has cited Medicaid expansion as one of the reasons the health care program became unsustainable.
Cristina Fletes-Mach
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漏 2024 外网天堂
Bob Onder, shown here in August 2024, has cited Medicaid expansion as one of the reasons the health care program became unsustainable.

Onder accuses Republicans of cowering over Medicaid

The House is slated to vote this week paving the way for a reconciliation bill later in the year.

None of the federal lawmakers who 漏 2024 外网天堂 contacted explicitly endorsed reducing the Medicaid expansion federal match, But at least two members of Missouri鈥檚 House delegation recently blamed Medicaid expansion for the program鈥檚 struggles.

In a , U.S. Rep. Bob Onder criticized Republicans who 鈥渃owered鈥 over Democrats lambasting them for 鈥渃utting Medicaid.鈥

鈥淭his is unsustainable,鈥 Onder, R-St. Charles County, wrote. 鈥淚f Medicaid is to be preserved for the truly needy, it must be reformed, including initiation of work requirements. And the 2025 reconciliation bill is a great place to do it!鈥

In , U.S. Rep. Eric Burlison, R-Greene County, cited Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act as one of the main reasons the program has become unsustainable.

鈥淭hese are able bodied young adults that Obama tripled the population into so that he could try to basically back door a single payer system,鈥 Burlison told Starnes.

Other Missouri lawmakers are taking a wait and see approach.

U.S. Representative Jason Smith, R-Salem, chairman of the House Ways and Means committee, speaks during a markup meeting on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, at the Rayburn House Office Building in Washington, D.C. House Republicans sent articles of impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to the Senate.
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U.S. Rep. Jason Smith, R-Salem, chairman of the House Ways and Means committee, will play a major role in crafting the reconciliation package that could include the end to the 90% federal Medicaid expansion match.

鈥淪imple changes like strengthening requirements for work in Medicaid can help the program save billions for those in need,鈥 U.S. Rep. Jason Smith, R-Salem, said in a statement. 鈥淚n my conversations with the president, he has made it crystal clear that he is committed to defending Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. I鈥檒l continue working with President Donald Trump and my colleagues in Congress to deliver one big, beautiful bill that will lower taxes for the working class, end the border crisis, cut wasteful spending, and unleash American energy.鈥

Arthur Bryant, a spokesman for U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner, said the Ballwin Republican will be monitoring what comes out of the House Energy and Commerce Committee in terms of changes to Medicaid. No one from Missouri鈥檚 House delegation serves on that committee.

鈥淲e will have to see what proposals come forward as this process continues,鈥 Bryant said. 鈥淎nd if there are effects on Missouri taxpayers, we will be sure to weigh those as we would any legislation that comes to the House floor for a vote.鈥

Josh Hawley shakes hand with a police officer before heading up the stairs to give a speech to his fans at Frankie Martin鈥檚 Garden on Thursday, Oct. 9, 2024.
Sophie Proe
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St.Louis Public Radio
U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, shown here in October 2024, has spoken out against the possibility of cutting Medicaid and also voted for several Democratic amendments aimed at preventing stark reductions to the program.

Challenges in Congress

Some lawmakers aren鈥檛 sure there鈥檚 enough GOP support to significantly cut the federal contribution to state Medicaid expansion programs.

Republicans have an extremely narrow margin in the U.S. House 鈥 and will likely need near-unanimous support to get a reconciliation package through. Republicans from Medicaid expansion states, especially Democratic-leaning ones like New York or California, may be hesitant to agree to end or reduce the 90% match.

鈥淚 think that there's certain things that should not be politicized,鈥 said U.S. Rep. Wesley Bell, D-St. Louis County, in an interview with 漏 2024 外网天堂. 鈥淎nd when we're talking about access to quality and just basic health care, I think that's something that shouldn't be a Democrat or Republican issue. We should all be fighting and dying on that hill.鈥

The other roadblock could be in the Senate, where Republicans have openly spoken out against cuts to Medicaid. That includes Missouri U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, that he鈥檇 be 鈥渞eally concerned about deep Medicaid cuts鈥 in a reconciliation bill.

鈥淚f you're going to talk about people who are working and otherwise qualify, if we're talking about significant benefit cuts, I'd be really concerned about that,鈥 Hawley said.

Hawley ended up voting for a number of unsuccessful Democratic amendments to the GOP budget plan. That that would block consideration of tax cuts if Congress reduces Medicaid coverage, shifts coverage or funding responsibility to states, or includes a net federal reduction for Medicaid. He also voted for an amendment aimed at

In a statement, Missouri GOP U.S. Sen. Eric Schmitt said 鈥渁s Congress looks at ways to save taxpayer dollars, accountability over the stewardship of taxpayer dollars should be our top priority.鈥

鈥淭his will make programs like Medicaid more sustainable and better serve the communities who need it the most,鈥 Schmitt said.

Bell said his caucus is united against any cuts to Medicaid 鈥 which could make it harder to pass any reconciliation bill if GOP members defect.

鈥淚've been very encouraged with the Democrats rallying around these issues,鈥 Bell said. 鈥淏ecause they are issues that impact regular working class people. These are those kitchen table issues that we're going to fight for.鈥

Jason is the politics correspondent for 漏 2024 外网天堂.