Mark Scott has been farming corn and soybeans on his family鈥檚 land in Wentzville for more than 30 years, and he has never seen fertilizer prices as high as they are now.
鈥淚t鈥檚 doubled in price than last year,鈥� Scott said. 鈥淚 locked up all my nitrogen this morning before it took another jump and it鈥檚 probably 38-40% higher than last year.鈥�
On a blustery March morning at his 2,000-acre farm he runs with his son, Scott said it鈥檚 a concern for him and the farmers he represents on the Missouri Corngrowers Association Board.
鈥淲e may be at a loss this year versus last year just due to the high input prices,鈥� he said.
Even before sanctions, fertilizer prices were already high because of supply chain problems and natural disasters shutting down some big plants. Prices were so high that the Family Farm Action Alliance asked the Department of Justice to investigate, and the Iowa attorney general announced his own inquiry.
Then Russia invaded Ukraine. Economic sanctions quickly followed, limiting Russia鈥檚 ability to export fertilizer and its raw ingredients. The country鈥檚 exports account for 18% of the world potash market, 20% of ammonia sales and 15% of urea. Plus a lot of the natural gas, the most expensive part of making nitrogen fertilizers, comes from Russia.
And while the U.S. doesn鈥檛 buy much fertilizer directly from Russia, countries that do are now shopping among America鈥檚 suppliers.
鈥淲e always see shifts in prices for lots and lots of reasons, but this has been very dramatic in a very short period of time,鈥� said Pat Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.
Westhoff said the timing of when farmers locked in their prices will be hugely important this year.
Farmers typically sign contracts to buy inputs like fertilizer and seeds for a certain price even though they take delivery months later. They also do the same with crops they grow, agreeing to a sale price sometimes before seeds are even in the ground.
鈥淚f you forward-contracted your grain a while ago at much lower prices than we have now but didn鈥檛 arrange for your fertilizer supplies, you could be in really deep trouble right now,鈥� Westhoff said.
Wheat, corn and soybean prices are also way up because of sanctions against Russia and the uncertainty of Ukraine鈥檚 production and its inability to export. Yet the inclining prices of both fertilizer and grains aren鈥檛 guaranteed to offset each other, said Randy Throener.
鈥淩ight now the two markets are working together. But they don鈥檛 always work together, and that鈥檚 the risk that comes this spring and this summer,鈥� said Throener, a partner with BKD, a Springfield, Missouri-based accounting firm that works with farmers.
Throener said a deep drop in grain prices with fertilizer costs skyrocketing could be disastrous.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 kind of the worst-case scenario. A farmer is seeing the prices go up and holds off on getting under contract until it鈥檚 too late, and these fertilizer inputs are going up and eating away at all of their margins,鈥� he said.
Outside of trying to time the market or getting lucky, there isn鈥檛 much farmers like Scott can do. He鈥檚 planning to plant a few more soybeans this year, but reducing the amount or frequency of applying fertilizer isn鈥檛 an option.
鈥淲e do extensive soil testing, and our fertilizer is applied differently acre by acre using GPS,鈥� he said. 鈥淐utting back on that would reduce yield this year and maybe put us behind next year, too.鈥�
But farmers say you have to be an optimist in this business and make decisions with limited information. This year is no different.
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This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest including 漏 2024 外网天堂. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues. Follow Harvest on Twitter:
