Updated at 5 p.m. Dec. 30 with comments from legislators
The head of a House committee tasked with redrawing Missouri鈥檚 eight congressional districts presented a map that would make Rep. Ann Wagner鈥檚 district safer 鈥� while keeping a Kansas City-based district reliably Democratic.
If the General Assembly follows through with Rep. Dan Shaul鈥檚 plan, Missouri would be set up to send six Republicans and two Democrats to the U.S. House for the foreseeable future. That鈥檚 the same lineup currently in place.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 the right thing to do,鈥� Shaul said in an interview. 鈥淚t was a map that I think accurately reflects the state of Missouri and the districts. We wanted to make sure the districts maintained their identity.鈥�
Due to census delays and Gov. Mike Parson鈥檚 decision not to call a special session of the legislature, Missouri is undertaking congressional redistricting later than most states. Shaul, R-Imperial, has been conducting hearings over the past few months about how Missouri should proceed.
Shaul鈥檚 map would add more of St. Charles County to Wagner鈥檚 2nd Congressional District. Some of Wagner鈥檚 more Democratic territory in St. Louis County would be placed in U.S. Rep. Cori Bush鈥檚 1st District. That was widely expected, since Bush鈥檚 district needed to expand to make up for population loss. Jefferson County would now be completely within U.S. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer鈥檚 district.
Even though Wagner, R-Ballwin, won reelection last year by a fairly comfortable margin, the 2nd District was one of the closest in the nation in terms of how it voted for president. The proposed changes would make the 2nd District much more Republican.
Shaul鈥檚 map would keep U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver鈥檚 Kansas City-based district solidly Democratic. It removes several rural counties that were historically favorable to Democrats but trended heavily toward the GOP after President Donald Trump鈥檚 election.
Many Missouri GOP officials who spoke to 漏 2024 外网天堂 before the filing of Shaul鈥檚 map did not expect Cleaver鈥檚 district to change dramatically. They said transforming his district into solidly Republican turf would lead to short-term gains but long-term peril if suburbs in the 4th or 6th Districts became more Democratic throughout the decade.
鈥淭here鈥檚 no fixing this bill for 10 years,鈥� Shaul said. 鈥淲hen myself and those who worked on the map looked at it, we looked at the long-term goal of giving continuity and consistency to the state of Missouri.鈥�
But some Republicans wanted the legislature to go for what鈥檚 known as a 鈥�7 to 1鈥� map as revenge for how Democrats hurt the GOP with redistricting in states like Illinois and Oregon. And it鈥檚 not out of the question that some Republican lawmakers could try to pursue that course when the legislative session starts Wednesday.
Shaul said he鈥檚 used to handling legislation that鈥檚 had some 鈥渞ather vocal opposition.鈥�
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 good to listen to other people's views,鈥� Shaul said. 鈥淚鈥檝e certainly listened to the 7 to 1 arguments. But at the end of the day, our purpose is to draw a map that truly reflects the population shifts and the population centers of the state of Missouri. And I think we have come to that conclusion with this map. And we鈥檙e always going to have people who say good and bad things about any bill. This is going to be no different."
A 7-to-1 map would face a lot of obstacles, as a number of Republicans in the House and Senate have publicly spoken out against such a move. And Senate Democrats have leverage to prevent that from happening, including threatening to use the filibuster to slow down the 2022 session.
Sen. Mike Bernskoetter, R-Jefferson City, who chairs the Senate committee on congressional redistricting, said in a statement that the proposed map 鈥渋s a fair and constitutional map with common-sense boundaries that everyday Missourians can recognize.鈥�
鈥淭his map, which must be passed by both the House and Senate, is also drawn to achieve the greatest amount of consensus possible,鈥� Bernskoetter said. 鈥淢y House counterpart and I chose to make this joint announcement to emphasize the great care that went into drawing a map we were confident could survive legislative, judicial, and public scrutiny.鈥�
One concern for some lawmakers is what鈥檚 known as the emergency clause, which, if two-thirds of both chambers vote for it, would put the map into effect right away. If 12 Missouri senators decide to vote against the emergency clause, then the legislation containing the map won鈥檛 become effective until Aug. 28. And that could throw the Aug. 2 primary into chaos, since people can鈥檛 run in districts that don鈥檛 exist.
Shaul said he鈥檚 hopeful that the map will get bipartisan support and will pass with an emergency clause.
Filing begins for Missouri candidates on Feb. 22. But since a redistricting commission for state Senate districts deadlocked, it鈥檚 highly possible that lawmakers will have to move the filing period back. Shaul would like to pass the map 鈥渞ight before filing opens.鈥�
Follow Jason on Twitter: @jrosenbaum
