While the historically Republican stronghold of Eureka isn鈥檛 expected to transform into a Democratic haven anytime soon, area resident Sally Sandy said she鈥檚 noticed a lot more Democrats around her are getting energized and organized ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
鈥淚mmediately after Trump鈥檚 election, I thought I was alone in a sea of fish that were not like me,鈥� Sandy said of the western St. Louis County suburb. 鈥淎nd a lot of us, especially women, found each other. And immediately we found that we were not alone.鈥�
Sandy鈥檚 observation is part of a growing body of evidence that previously Republican-leaning parts of the St. Louis region are becoming more amenable to Democratic candidates. It's a trend that a lot of people in the St. Louis region and around the country are watching closely.
This political shift, mainly attributable to backlash over President Donald Trump鈥檚 policies and style, could be a big reason the 2nd Congressional District clash between incumbent Republican Ann Wagner and Democrat Jill Schupp is one of the most competitive races in the nation.
It could also be why some state legislative seats, such as the 15th Senate District, that were once out of reach for Democrats are now considered toss-ups.
鈥淚 think that for lots of different reasons the Republican Party of the Bushes, John McCain and Mitt Romney was a more attractive party to some of these folks than the party of Donald Trump is,鈥� said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Larry Sabato鈥檚 Crystal Ball, which monitors and handicaps elections.
Evidence of change
There鈥檚 more than just anecdotal evidence that previously Republican areas of St. Louis County are becoming more Democratic.
Two years ago, U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill got higher percentages of the vote than Jason Kander in places like Missouri River Township, which includes Town and Country and Des Peres. She also won Queeny Township, which GOP Sen. Roy Blunt narrowly won in 2016 in his race against Kander. That township includes Valley Park, Twin Oaks and Winchester.
Democrats have also gained ground in Missouri House seats that were previously Republican, over Lee Ann Pitman.
And Democrat Cort VanOstran basically tied with Wagner in St. Louis County during the 2018 election cycle. While the 2nd District includes more than just western St. Louis County, Schupp said VanOstran鈥檚 strong campaign, which received virtually no help from outside Democratic groups, was telling.
鈥淚 think that we鈥檝e seen that things have changed over the years,鈥� Schupp said. 鈥淭here is a real enthusiasm for change in this district.鈥�
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There are a number of theories about why previously Republican parts of St. Louis County are getting bluer. Much of the shift is attributed to Trump, who has seen his poll numbers sag across the nation in suburbs with middle- to upper-income white voters with college degrees.
鈥淭he Republican Party brand in these kinds of districts across the country, whether you're in suburban St. Louis or Kansas City or Indianapolis or Columbus or Dallas-Fort Worth ... a lot of similar kinds of districts are moving similar kinds of ways,鈥� Kondik said.
And while much of central and western St. Louis County is still largely white, Ballwin resident Sue Abuzeide noted that the area is becoming more racially diverse, which generally helps Democrats. Abuzeide鈥檚 son-in-law, for instance, is Moroccan, and she pointed out that immigrants from a number of different racial and ethnic backgrounds have moved to the area in recent years.
鈥淎mong my friends, a lot of them have a family member of a different culture now,鈥� Abuzeide said. 鈥淎nd so when you have grandchildren that are from a different religion or culture or ethnicity, you have to confront that. And I think the Democrats do a better job of being inclusive.鈥�
Taking another look at policies
Kirkwood, a former Republican-leaning town, has become a Democratic stronghold in the era of Trump. Things have moved so far in the Democrats鈥� direction that the GOP didn鈥檛 even field a candidate for a state House race there in 2018.
Kirkwood resident Renee Werner said Trump malaise is prompting voters to take another look at Democratic policies they may have once rejected.
鈥淭he presidential impact is having people look at a progressive agenda as no longer a far-left swing. It can be more moderate,鈥� Werner said. 鈥淐learly, the insanity we鈥檙e seeing has absolutely trickled down to a local level.鈥�
Wagner, who has represented the 2nd District since 2013, said she and Trump are not 鈥渙ne and the same,鈥� especially when it comes to style. But she disputes the idea that voters in the district are becoming more liberal when it comes to issues.
Wagner specifically praised Trump for his nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court. She also said she approves of Trump鈥檚 policies on slashing taxes and regulations.
鈥淲e have an extreme difference in tenor, in tone, in tweet storms,鈥� Wagner said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 get distracted by that. I do believe that his policies, many and most of his policies, have been very, very sound for the United States of America.鈥�
State Sen. Andrew Koenig, R-Manchester, acknowledged that Trump is making his 2020 race more difficult.
Koenig is running against Democratic state Rep. Deb Lavender in the 15th District, which includes Kirkwood, Ballwin and Manchester. His first election in 2016 was a breeze, partially because of the district鈥檚 GOP tilt. In addition, his opponent barely spent any money in his campaign and admitted that he commuted between St. Louis and Georgia.
Koenig said that some people in the district don鈥檛 like the way Trump tweets or talks. But Koenig added that when he goes door to door, he鈥檚 finding that voters are still with him on key issues.
鈥淭he two issues that I think most constituents are talking about is law and order. And we鈥檙e on the right side of that issue. I鈥檓 the only person endorsed by the Fraternal Order of Police,鈥� Koenig said. 鈥淎nd then the issue is taxes. People do not want to be overtaxed. The problem with Missouri is they tax you everywhere.鈥�
Lavender, though, said she agrees with Werener about how Trump鈥檚 presidency is prompting voters to notice more stark differences between candidates when it comes to issues like health care, abortion and environmental policy.
鈥淗istorically if you look at St. Louis County, Democrats move west,鈥� Lavender said. 鈥淎nd so, I flipped the seat in District 90. It took me a couple of years to do it. But part of that was because the demographics are changing. I think we鈥檙e going to see that demographics have changed over the last four years in this location. I think Trump鈥檚 presidency has been part of what鈥檚 been changing this and more so because it has pointed out the differences in people in the suburbs and what they鈥檙e looking for.鈥�
Changing strategies
One telltale sign that Trump is not as popular in the 2nd District is how some of Wagner鈥檚 allies are attacking Schupp on health care policy.
Some third-party ads have accused Schupp of supporting 鈥淢edicare for All,鈥� a proposal supported by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. These ads have featured Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden attacking the plan, and by extension, attacking Schupp. She has said she does not back Medicare for All but is supportive of adding a public option to the Affordable Care Act.
Kondik said he鈥檚 seen that strategy used in other suburban House districts, which is an implicit sign that Biden is more popular than Trump in those areas and therefore is an asset to down-ballot candidates.
鈥淎nd so you kind of decouple Biden from the rest of the Democratic Party, which is perceived as more liberal,鈥� Kondik said. 鈥淚t's a different kind of strategy that we're used to seeing from a lot of Republicans, because the typical play is to tie a local candidate to the national Democratic Party.鈥�
While all of the 15th District is in St. Louis County, the 2nd Congressional District includes parts of St. Charles and Jefferson counties. There鈥檚 less evidence that Trump鈥檚 popularity is slipping in those parts of the St. Louis region, which have historically supported more conservative candidates.
鈥淲e caution candidates not to take Republican votes for granted,鈥� said Missouri Republican Party Executive Director Jean Evans. 鈥淛ust because someone is a Trump voter, don't necessarily take it for granted in these rural areas that they're going to vote for you. Every vote has to be earned.鈥�
She agrees with Wagner and Koenig that voters in the usually Republican parts of St. Louis County still stand with the GOP on issues.
鈥淲e want to keep St Louis County above 40% Republican,鈥� Evans said. 鈥淪o really we would like to see it above 45. That would be ideal. And we know that we cannot continue a downward trend in St. Louis County and continue to hold onto the state.鈥�
Even if Biden wins big in St. Louis and lifts down-ballot Democrats to victory on Nov. 3, it may not be a permanent pattern.
But west St. Louis County resident Susan Moore is heartened that people around her are engaged about the election cycle. What she鈥檚 hoping changes in the future, though, is the tone and tenor of politics.
鈥淵ou know we鈥檝e gone through a Democratic era, we鈥檝e gone through a Republican era,鈥� Moore said. 鈥淲e鈥檒l be fluid. And I think that鈥檚 the beauty of living in our country. I think what鈥檚 missing is respect for other people and listening to people and what they have to say.鈥�
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