When Gov. Jay Nixon steps in front of the lectern for his seventh State of the State speech, he鈥檒l be speaking arguably at the lowest point of his power over the Missouri General Assembly.
Any bit of his agenda that arouses even a hint of controversy can be slapped away by the huge Republican majorities in the House and Senate. And even some Democrats are upset over the way he handled the unrest in Ferguson. He has, in essence, entered the twilight of his governorship.
But paradoxically, the stakes for Nixon鈥檚 speech are probably higher than usual 鈥� for reasons that have nothing to do with Jefferson City gamesmanship or Nixon's future in politics.
Many people see a need for a state response to the deep-seated issues raised by the unrest in Ferguson 鈥� and the State of the State may set the tone for what can feasibly pass. Even though Republicans have supermajorities, proposals that curb municipal courts and policing may not find legislative unanimity 鈥� and so may need the promise of Nixon鈥檚 signature to have any momentum.
At the same time, vexing education, transportation and economic development problems remain unsolved. While Republicans will ultimately craft the legislation, the governor鈥檚 speech can set some philosophical parameters.
With the stakes as they are, here are five things to look for as Nixon makes his State of State address. You can .
How adversarial will Nixon be toward the Republican majority?
For Nixon鈥檚 entire term in office, the legislature was dominated by the Republicans. (John Ashcroft faced a parallel situation when he was a Republican governor with a Democratic-controlled legislature.) Nixon's relationship with the General Assembly vacillated between being reasonably productive to pretty darn hostile.
Sometimes, that tension manifests itself in the State of the State speech. Last year, for instance, 鈥� a veiled Nixon may use his address to chide Republicans for not enacting some of his major priorities 鈥� including expanding Medicaid or setting campaign finance limits.
Or if he wants to win the attention of the GOP-controlled legislature, Nixon may focus on areas of common ground 鈥� using more honey than acid.
Will Ferguson be a dominant theme?
The governor鈥檚 reaction to the Ferguson unrest drew widespread criticism. Some ;
Nixon appointed 鈥� long after the General Assembly will have adjourned for the year. But with it wouldn鈥檛 be too surprising for Nixon to chart out how he wants to proceed. Whether he endorses changes to municipal courts or police practices, Nixon鈥檚 words could set the tone for what鈥檚 possible.
Protesters demonstrated in the Missouri Capitol on the first day of the legislative session. Will protesters interrupt Nixon鈥檚 speech?
Can Nixon forge a path to transportation funding?
Nixon a 0.75 percent sales tax increase for transportation projects. That initiative failed decisively,
Right before the end of the year, the Missouri Department of Transportation 鈥� one of the state鈥檚 busiest highways. Nixon may highlight that report to spur some sort of legislative reaction.
Whether the lawmakers will accepts toll roads, however, remains to be seen. None of the options presented over the last few years 鈥� including a sales tax increase, toll roads or an increase to the gas tax 鈥� gained much favor either with legislators or the public.
Will the governor dwell on the student transfer issue?
During last year鈥檚 legislative session, one of . That statute requires unaccredited districts to pay tuition and some transportation for children who want to transfer to an accredited school. Policymakers sprung into action a.
Despite its importance, Nixon : 鈥淲e need to fix the law that鈥檚 led to so much stress and uncertainty for families and schools, as thousands of students are transported from one district to another.鈥� He directed much more attention on 鈥渇ully funding鈥� the state鈥檚 foundation formula, a desire that was promptly ignored by the legislature.
Last session, changes to the transfer law . So will Nixon devote more than a sentence to the topic? If he says what he wants to see, it may be the guidance lawmakers need. Or lawmakers may ignore his advice, prompting another showdown during veto session.
Will what Nixon says matter in May?
For all the pomp and circumstance of the State of the State address, the speech isn鈥檛 necessarily a good indicator of what will become a priority during the legislative session.
For example, back in 2008, Gov. Matt Blunt . Despite great fanfare, the program, Insure Missouri,
Nixon鈥檚 speeches have often focused on issues that aren鈥檛 particularly attractive to the Republican majority 鈥� such as or . An issue may have grabbed a headline for a night, but lawmakers often have their own priorities that differ from the governor's.
So it remains to be seen whether what gets said in January resonates
On the Trail, a weekly column, weaves together some of the intriguing threads from the world of Missouri politics.
